Investors Looking For Returns Overseas May Need to Think Again

Putting some of your investments in foreign assets had been a winning move for several years. Outsized returns were seemingly easy to find among a number of emerging markets. Even older, more established markets like Japan and Europe were profit-friendly as long as they were anywhere but here. The overseas investment theme has been so consistently emphasized by many professional investors and portfolio managers that it has become a seldom-challenged strategy.

What is not evident, and often not well-defined, is the extra risk associated with foreign investing. And I am not talking about corrupt dictators. Even investing in stable, transparent markets like Europe and Japan creates extra risk - currency risk.

Understanding currency movements has not been a priority since the direction of the US dollar has been favorable for investing abroad. A decline in the value of the dollar in relation to other currencies makes foreign assets more valuable to US investors. While overseas stock markets were soaring there was an extra currency bonus to US investors from the falling dollar.

But that investment thesis may be due for a review.

It is common knowledge that stock markets here in the US have struggled with fallout from the credit crisis and weakening economy. But foreign markets have also struggled, and in many cases the declines have been worse: British stocks are down 18.4% since October 2007 highs, German 21.3%, and French 25.2%. In Asia, Japanese stocks have declined 27.5%, Hong Kong 36.2% and Singapore 30.3%. In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 18.5%.

Those declines themselves are enough to give investors pause, but a second hit comes from a strengthening US dollar. Since recent lows the dollar is up 7.7% against the Euro and 12.2% vs. the Japanese Yen. Those nasty market declines above are quoted in local currencies. That means if you held a French market ETF (exchange traded fund) your total decline, in US dollar terms, was 31%! Or 36% in Japan!

There are considerable reasons to believe that the dollar will continue to climb. A large part of its downward trend over the past year and a half was the belief that economic weakness would remain an exclusive problem for the United States (remember when this was supposed to be only a subprime mortgage problem?). That proved to be far from the case as economic growth has slowed all over the globe. Just last week the British economy showed growth of 0.0% - an economic halt. Forecasts for European growth have been cut dramatically and, with the increasing impact of inflation, Asian governments now fear sustained weakness and worldwide recession.

How does all that impact the dollar?

1. It makes the US look like a relatively safe place to invest. While we still have problems, in a storm safety becomes a priority.
2. Central banks typically reduce interest rates in response to weakness. Since the US Federal Reserve has already decreased rates, and is sending signals that it may raise rates, lower foreign interest rates make US investments more attractive.
3. Many foreign markets were dependent on Wall Street cash to keep them moving higher. It is far easier to keep a market moving higher with momentum than it is to restart it once that market has dramatically reversed course. Without tons of cash coming from investment banks those overseas markets may have a tough time reproducing the returns that attracted so many investors in the first place.
4. Inflation is affecting foreign, and especially emerging markets, more than the US. We think inflation is high here (with gas prices through the roof) but the fact is that inflation in Asia and South America is already higher and threatens those regions disproportionately. Since inflation is hostile to investments, regions with lower, stable inflation are preferred.

Those four factors increase demand for the dollar that, in turn, increases the price of the dollar.
For investors with money in foreign investments it may make sense to rethink the exposure. Domestic, multinational companies can gain access to fast-growing overseas markets. There is still currency risk to their profits, but they have finance departments hedging those currency movements. So the ultimate question may be whether or not you would rather manage the currency risk yourself or have companies' finance departments do it.